MeritValue

Rekor Systems, Inc.

REKRdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Rekor Systems, Inc. earns about -82% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 191% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.6M1$19.9M2$34.9M3$46M4$48.5M4
Net income−$26.8M5−$83.1M6−$45.7M7−$61.4M8−$31.5M8
Operating cash flow−$18M9−$39.6M10−$32.6M11−$32.5M12−$20.4M12
Capital expenditure$4.37M13$2.99M14$1.39M15$1.68M16$2.53M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$22.4M9−$42.6M10−$34M11−$34.2M12−$22.9M12
Total debt——$26M17$15.9M18$15M19
Cash & equivalents$25.8M20$1.92M21$15.4M22$5.01M23$16.6M23
Diluted shares41.2M49.8M63.2M86.7M119.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.63
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.25

10 shares is a claim on $3.58 of net worth that earned you −$2.63 and generated −$1.91 of cash last year, against $1.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-82% avg · 5y
FY21 -33%FY22 -141%FY23 -76%FY24 -103%FY25 -56%

It earned an average -82% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+191% shares · 5y

Share count is up 191% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 42% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008442 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010193 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010647 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008442 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010193 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010647 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008442 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010193 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010647 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008442 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009219 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010193 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010647 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009219 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010193 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010647 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010193 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010647 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)