MeritValue

REED'S, INC.

REEDdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

REED'S, INC. earns about -254% on equity, but has diluted owners by 355% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$49.6M1$53M2$44.7M3$38M4$34.1M4
Net income−$16.4M5−$20.1M6−$15.5M7−$13.2M8−$15.8M8
Operating cash flow−$17.6M9−$15.5M10−$4.27M11−$6.12M12−$17M12
Capital expenditure$326,00013—$85,00014$152,00015$272,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$17.9M9—−$4.35M11−$6.28M12−$17.3M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares1.8M2.2M3.5M1.3M8.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.08
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.85
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.02 of net worth that earned you −$19.08 and generated −$20.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-254% avg · 5y
FY21 -390%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -198%FY25 -173%

It earned an average -254% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+355% shares · 5y

Share count is up 355% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-017571 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012505 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001344 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012679 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-017571 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012505 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001344 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012679 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-017571 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012505 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001344 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012679 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-017571 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-001344 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-012679 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)