MeritValue

Real Brokerage Inc

REAXdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Real Brokerage Inc earns about -58% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.22 and $13.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$121.7M1$381.8M2$689.2M3$1.26B4$1.97B4
Net income−$11.7M5−$20.6M6−$27.5M7−$26.5M8−$8.11M8
Operating cash flow$1.68M9$6M10$19M11$48.7M12$65.9M12
Capital expenditure$172,00013—$629,00014$1.05M15$1.1M15
Free cash flow (derived)$1.51M9—$18.3M11$47.7M12$64.8M12
Total debt$016————
Cash & equivalents$29.1M17$18.3M17$14.7M18$23.4M19$33.2M19
Diluted shares178.2M178.2M178.1M191.2M219.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.35 of net worth that earned you −$0.37 and generated $2.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-58% avg · 5y
FY21 -43%FY22 -72%FY23 -75%FY24 -83%FY25 -16%

It earned about -58% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.22 and $13.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$47.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$47.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.22
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.25
Base20.0%$7.22
Bull20.0%$7.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007836 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009989 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009312 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008771 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007836 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009989 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009312 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008771 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007836 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009989 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009312 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008771 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-22-010220 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009312 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008771 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 40-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001062993-22-010220 (Borrowings)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009989 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009312 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008771 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)