RADWARE LTD

RDWRdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

RADWARE LTD earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.4 and $15.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$286.5M1$293.4M2$261.3M3$274.9M3$301.9M3
Net income$7.81M4−$166,0005−$21.6M6$6.04M6$20.3M6
Operating cash flow$71.8M7$32.1M8−$3.5M9$71.6M9$50.1M9
Capital expenditure$5.6M10$8.81M11$5.43M12$5.28M12$8.54M12
Free cash flow (derived)$66.2M7$23.3M8−$8.93M9$66.3M9$41.6M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$92.5M13$46.2M14$70.5M15$98.7M16$105.1M16
Diluted shares47.5M44.9M42.9M43.4M44.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.3
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $78.16 of net worth that earned you $4.53 and generated $9.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 1%FY23 -7%FY24 3%FY25 8%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.4 and $15.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$41.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$41.6M
Earnings Power Value
$1.4
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.04M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$8.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.63
Base0.0%$15.63
Bull5.0%$18.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001040 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001101 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001923 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001101 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001923 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001101 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001923 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001101 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001923 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001101 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001923 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)