MeritValue

Redwire Corp

RDWdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Redwire Corp earns about -83% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 165% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$137.6M1$160.5M2$243.8M3$304.1M3$335.4M3
Net income−$61.5M4−$130.6M5−$27.3M6−$114.3M6−$226.6M6
Operating cash flow−$37.4M7−$31.7M8$1.23M9−$17.3M9−$177.3M9
Capital expenditure$2.09M10$3.63M11$5.62M12$6.4M12$13.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$39.5M7−$35.3M8−$4.39M9−$23.7M9−$190.8M9
Total debt$155.1M13$154.6M14$176.4M15$251.5M16$170.4M16
Cash & equivalents$20.5M17$28.3M18$30.3M19$33.7M19$94.5M19
Diluted shares45.1M63.3M64.7M66.1M119.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$88.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.95
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.96
Debt you’d be carrying
$14.25

10 shares is a claim on $88.67 of net worth that earned you −$18.95 and generated −$15.96 of cash last year, against $14.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-83% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -86%FY23 -13%FY24 -280%FY25 -15%

It earned an average -83% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+165% shares · 5y

Share count is up 165% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819810-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819810-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819810-26-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819810-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819810-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819810-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819810-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819810-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819810-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819810-23-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819810-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819810-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819810-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819810-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819810-25-000063 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819810-26-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819810-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819810-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819810-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)