MeritValue

RedHill Biopharma Ltd.

RDHLdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

RedHill Biopharma Ltd. earns about -165% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3259% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$64.4M1$85.8M2$61.8M3$6.53M3$8.04M3
Net income−$76.2M4−$97.7M5−$71.7M6$23.9M6−$8.27M6
Operating cash flow−$48.6M7−$65M8−$29.2M9−$35.8M9−$9.37M9
Capital expenditure$406,00010$115,00011$198,00012$11,00012$9,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$49M7−$65.2M8−$29.4M9−$35.8M9−$9.38M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$29.3M13$29.5M14$20M14$5.57M14$4.62M14
Diluted shares384.0M526.8M1.18B12.75B12.90B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.01
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0 of net worth that earned you −$0.01 and generated −$0.01 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-165% avg · 5y
FY20 -549%FY21 -1101%FY22 —FY23 1156%FY24 —

It earned an average -165% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3259% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3259% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007149 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004806 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004648 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007149 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004806 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004648 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007149 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004806 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004648 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007149 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004806 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004648 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004806 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004648 (CashAndCashEquivalents)