Reddit, Inc.
RDDTdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Reddit, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 253% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.67 and $25.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $666.7M1 | $804M2 | $1.3B2 | $2.2B2 |
| Net income | −$158.6M3 | −$90.8M4 | −$484.3M4 | $529.7M4 |
| Operating cash flow | −$94M5 | −$75.1M6 | $222.1M6 | $690.9M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $6.23M7 | $9.72M8 | $6.25M8 | $6.71M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$100.3M5 | −$84.8M6 | $215.8M6 | $684.2M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $435.8M9 | $401.2M10 | $562.1M10 | $953.6M10 |
| Diluted shares | 57.3M | 59.1M | 145.5M | 202.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $144.92 of net worth that earned you $26.21 and generated $33.85 of cash last year.
It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 253% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.67 and $25.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$215.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$215.8M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.98 |
| Base | 5.0% | $23.67 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $28.09 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001713445-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001713445-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001713445-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001713445-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001713445-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001713445-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001713445-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001713445-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001713445-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001713445-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)