MeritValue

Arcus Biosciences, Inc.

RCUSdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Arcus Biosciences, Inc. earns about -44% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$383M1$38M2$37M3$51M3$33M3
Net income$53M4−$267M5−$307M6−$283M6−$353M6
Operating cash flow−$256M7$438M8−$306M9−$170M9−$482M9
Capital expenditure$26M10$6M11$24M12$6M12$2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$282M7$432M8−$330M9−$176M9−$484M9
Total debt——$013$48M14$99M14
Cash & equivalents$148M15$206M16$127M17$150M18$222M18
Diluted shares74.0M72.0M74.0M90.1M107.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$58.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$32.87
Free cash flow it threw off
−$45.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.22

10 shares is a claim on $58.75 of net worth that earned you −$32.87 and generated −$45.07 of cash last year, against $9.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-44% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 -47%FY23 -71%FY24 -58%FY25 -53%

It earned an average -44% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001724521-24-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001724521-25-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001724521-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001724521-24-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001724521-25-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001724521-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001724521-24-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001724521-25-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001724521-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001724521-24-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001724521-25-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001724521-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001724521-25-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001724521-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001724521-24-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001724521-25-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001724521-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)