MeritValue

ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD

RCLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD earns about 40% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.18 and $78.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.53B1$8.84B2$13.9B3$16.5B3$17.9B3
Net income−$5.26B4−$2.16B5$1.7B6$2.88B6$4.27B6
Operating cash flow−$1.88B7$481M8$4.48B9$5.27B9$6.47B9
Capital expenditure$2.23B10$2.71B11$3.9B12$3.27B12$5.23B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$4.11B7−$2.23B8$580M9$2B9$1.24B9
Total debt$2.24B13$2.09B14$1.72B15$1.6B16$3.18B16
Cash & equivalents$2.7B17$1.94B18$497M19$388M20$825M20
Diluted shares252.0M255.0M283.0M279.0M274.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$366.31
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$155.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$116.06

10 shares is a claim on $366.31 of net worth that earned you $155.77 and generated $45.11 of cash last year, against $116.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
40% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 52%FY24 33%FY25 35%

It earned about 40% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.18 and $78.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$78.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$71.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
Earnings Power Value
$64.18
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$113.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $71.46
The three cases
Bear0.0%$55.86
Base5.0%$71.46
Bull10.0%$90.12

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884887-24-000075 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884887-25-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884887-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884887-24-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884887-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884887-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884887-24-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884887-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884887-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884887-24-000075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884887-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884887-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884887-22-000008 (CommercialPaper)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884887-24-000075 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884887-25-000050 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000884887-26-000007 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000884887-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000884887-24-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000884887-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000884887-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)