MeritValue

ROCKY BRANDS, INC.

RCKYdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ROCKY BRANDS, INC. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.16 and $348.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$514.2M1$615.5M2$461.8M2$453.8M3$482M3
Net income$20.6M4$20.5M5$10.4M5$11.4M6$22.3M6
Operating cash flow−$54.9M7$19.1M8$73.6M8$52.8M9$16.3M9
Capital expenditure$21.1M10$6.7M11$3.92M11$4.66M12$6.58M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$75.9M7$12.4M8$69.7M8$48.1M9$9.72M9
Total debt$540.1M13$513.8M14$346.3M15$257.5M16$245.3M16
Cash & equivalents$5.91M17$5.72M18$4.47M19$3.72M20$2.9M20
Diluted shares7.4M7.4M7.4M7.5M7.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$334.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$325.74

10 shares is a claim on $334.78 of net worth that earned you $29.58 and generated $12.91 of cash last year, against $325.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.16 and $348.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$348.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$48.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$176.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$48.1M
Earnings Power Value
$28.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $176.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.08
Base20.0%$176.08
Bull20.0%$176.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007987 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007634 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007987 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007634 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007987 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007634 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007987 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007634 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006169 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007987 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007634 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006169 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007987 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007634 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)