MeritValue

AVITA Medical, Inc.

RCELdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AVITA Medical, Inc. earns about -170% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$29.2M1$34.4M2$50.1M3$63.9M4$70.9M4
Net income−$26.6M5−$26.7M6−$35.4M7−$61.8M8−$48.6M8
Operating cash flow−$25.9M9−$19.1M10−$38M11−$48.9M12−$31.2M12
Capital expenditure$894,00013$452,00014$1.38M15$9.17M16$1.01M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$26.8M9−$19.5M10−$39.4M11−$58.1M12−$32.2M12
Total debt——$39.8M17$42.2M18$43M18
Cash & equivalents$110.7M19$18.2M20$22.1M21$14.1M22$10.2M22
Diluted shares22.7M25.0M25.3M25.9M27.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$5.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.44
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$15.43

10 shares is a claim on −$5.98 of net worth that earned you −$17.44 and generated −$11.56 of cash last year, against $15.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-170% avg · 5y
FY21 -427%FY22 -32%FY23 -40%FY24 -136%FY25 -214%

It earned an average -170% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-23-002302 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018748 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-049031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-23-002302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018748 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-049031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-23-002302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018748 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-049031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-23-002302 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018748 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-049031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-049031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001564590-23-002302 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018748 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-049031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)