Rubrik, Inc.
RBRKdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on fileThe estimate methods put fair value between $4.77 and $5.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $599.8M1 | $627.9M2 | $886.5M2 | $1.32B2 |
| Net income | −$277.7M3 | −$354.2M4 | −$1.15B4 | −$348.8M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $19.3M5 | −$4.52M6 | $48.2M6 | $282.9M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $25M7 | $12.3M8 | $16.9M8 | $29.6M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$5.73M5 | −$16.9M6 | $31.3M6 | $253.3M6 |
| Total debt | — | $287M9 | $322.3M9 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $140.6M10 | $130M11 | $186.3M12 | $380.2M12 |
| Diluted shares | 59.6M | 60.6M | 154.3M | 196.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on −$26.45 of net worth that earned you −$17.75 and generated $12.89 of cash last year.
Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 230% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.77 and $5.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$31.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$31.3M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $4.21 |
| Base | 5.0% | $4.77 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $5.43 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001943896-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001943896-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001943896-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001943896-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001943896-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001943896-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001943896-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001943896-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001943896-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001943896-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001943896-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001943896-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)