MeritValue

Robin Energy Ltd.

RBNEdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Robin Energy Ltd. earns about 21% on invested capital, and has bought back 70% of its shares over 3 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.6M1$6.77M1$9.91M1
Net income$15.4M2$1.05M2−$45,1422
Operating cash flow−$6.34M3$6.89M3$10.2M3
Capital expenditure$766,8874$71,7864$38.1M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$7.11M3$6.82M3−$27.9M3
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$3515$3696$5.65M6
Diluted shares5.0M5.0M1.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$204.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.3
Free cash flow it threw off
−$187.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $204.21 of net worth that earned you −$0.3 and generated −$187.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 3y
FY23 57%FY24 5%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 21% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−70% shares · 3y

Share count is down 70% over 3 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$7.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.05M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-014136 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-014136 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-014136 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-014136 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-014136 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-014136 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)