MeritValue

RBC Bearings INC

RBCdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RBC Bearings INC earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.76 and $309.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$942.9M1$1.47B2$1.56B3$1.64B3$1.87B3
Net income—$166.7M4$209.9M5$246.2M5$287.6M5
Operating cash flow—$220.6M6$274.7M7$293.6M7$415.7M7
Capital expenditure$29.8M8$42M9$33.2M10$49.8M10$73.1M10
Free cash flow (derived)—$178.6M6$241.5M7$243.8M7$342.6M7
Total debt—$2.79B11$2.38B12$1.84B13$1.75B13
Cash & equivalents—$65.4M14$63.5M15$36.8M16$57.3M16
Diluted shares—29.1M29.2M30.4M31.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,062.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$90.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$108.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$553.5

10 shares is a claim on $1,062.43 of net worth that earned you $90.91 and generated $108.3 of cash last year, against $553.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 4%FY26 5%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 37% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.76 and $309.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$309.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.8%
  • fcfBase$243.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$168.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.8%
  • fcfBase$243.8M
Earnings Power Value
$68.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$209.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$147.41
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $168.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.57
Base16.8%$168.59
Bull20.0%$197.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-22-045106 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001213900-25-044893 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001213900-26-057626 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001213900-25-044893 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001213900-26-057626 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001213900-25-044893 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001213900-26-057626 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001213900-22-045106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001213900-23-041600 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001213900-26-057626 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001213900-24-044761 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001213900-25-044893 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001213900-26-057626 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0001213900-24-044761 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001213900-25-044893 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001213900-26-057626 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)