MeritValue

Ribbon Communications Inc.

RBBNdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ribbon Communications Inc. earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.5 and $5.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$845M1$819.8M2$826.3M3$833.9M3$844.6M3
Net income−$177.2M4−$98.1M5−$66.2M6−$54.2M6$39.6M6
Operating cash flow$19.2M7−$26.4M8$17.1M9$50.2M9$51.4M9
Capital expenditure$17.1M10$10.3M11$9.38M12$22.4M12$25.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.05M7−$36.6M8$7.71M9$27.8M9$26.1M9
Total debt$370.3M13$656.8M14$468M15$685.1M16$675.4M16
Cash & equivalents$103.9M17$67.3M18$26.5M19$87.8M20$96.4M20
Diluted shares147.6M156.7M170.4M174.0M179.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.56

10 shares is a claim on $24.97 of net worth that earned you $2.2 and generated $1.45 of cash last year, against $37.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -21%FY22 -8%FY23 -5%FY24 -4%FY25 -3%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 82% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.5 and $5.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$26.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$1.15
Base20.0%$1.5
Bull20.0%$1.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708055-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001773 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708055-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708055-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001773 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708055-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708055-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001773 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708055-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708055-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001773 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001708055-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708055-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708055-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001773 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001708055-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001708055-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001708055-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001773 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001708055-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)