MeritValue

RB GLOBAL INC.

RBAdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RB GLOBAL INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 68% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.73 and $206.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.42B1$1.73B2$3.68B3$4.28B3$4.59B3
Net income$151.9M4$319.7M5$206.5M6$413.1M6$428.4M6
Operating cash flow$317.6M7$463.1M8$544M9$932M9$978.2M9
Capital expenditure$9.8M10$32M11$227.9M12$167.4M12$259M12
Free cash flow (derived)$307.8M7$431.1M8$316.1M9$764.6M9$719.2M9
Total debt$3.48B13$1.19B14$6.17B15$5.28B16$4.81B16
Cash & equivalents$326.1M17$494.3M18$576.2M19$533.9M20$531.5M20
Diluted shares111.4M111.9M168.2M185.3M186.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$298.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$257.12

10 shares is a claim on $298.1 of net worth that earned you $22.92 and generated $38.48 of cash last year, against $257.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 18%FY23 3%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+68% shares · 5y

Share count is up 68% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.73 and $206.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$206.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$719.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$102.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$719.2M
Earnings Power Value
$17.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$319.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $102.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.11
Base20.0%$102.59
Bull20.0%$102.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007570 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008201 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011682 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007570 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008201 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011682 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007570 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008201 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011682 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007570 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008201 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011682 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001652 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007570 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008201 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011682 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001652 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007570 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008201 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011682 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)