MeritValue

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

RAREdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. earns about -413% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$351.4M1$363.3M2$434M3$560M3$673M3
Net income−$454M4−$707.4M5−$607M6−$569M6−$575M6
Operating cash flow−$338.7M7−$380.5M8−$475M9−$414M9−$466M9
Capital expenditure$73.1M10$116.1M11$44M12$7M12$6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$411.8M7−$496.6M8−$519M9−$421M9−$472M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$307.6M13$132.9M14$214M15$174M15$421M15
Diluted shares67.8M69.9M73.5M90.5M98.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$8.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$58.32
Free cash flow it threw off
−$47.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$8.11 of net worth that earned you −$58.32 and generated −$47.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-413% avg · 5y
FY21 -58%FY22 -253%FY23 -789%FY24 -553%FY25 —

It earned an average -413% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017879 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023312 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057329 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017879 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023312 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057329 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017879 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023312 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057329 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017879 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023312 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057329 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023312 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057329 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)