MeritValue

Rani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.

RANIdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Rani Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. earns about -392% on equity, but has diluted owners by 239% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.72M1$01$02$1.03M3$1.63M3
Net income−$8.33M4−$30.6M5−$34M6−$30M7−$29.7M7
Operating cash flow−$32.2M8−$46.5M9−$51.2M10−$35.5M11−$18.7M11
Capital expenditure$506,00012$1.62M13$1.23M14$268,00015$88,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$32.8M8−$48.1M9−$52.5M10−$35.8M11−$18.8M11
Total debt$016$59.1M17$59.4M18$49.6M19$019
Cash & equivalents$117.5M20$27M21$5.86M22$3.76M23$18.6M23
Diluted shares19,53423,81725,50528,47666,138

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4,991.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4,486.53
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2,842.84
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $4,991.08 of net worth that earned you −$4,486.53 and generated −$2,842.84 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-392% avg · 5y
FY21 -18%FY22 -83%FY23 -264%FY24 -1507%FY25 -90%

It earned an average -392% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+239% shares · 5y

Share count is up 239% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009178 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047740 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126417 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009178 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034163 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047740 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126417 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034163 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047740 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126417 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009178 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034163 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047740 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126417 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009178 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034163 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047740 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126417 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034163 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047740 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-126417 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)