MeritValue

FreightCar America, Inc.

RAILdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FreightCar America, Inc. earns about -100% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 63% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.05 and $13.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$199.8M1$361.5M2$356.8M3$557.7M4$500.7M4
Net income−$41.4M5−$38.8M6−$23.6M7−$75.8M8$38.1M8
Operating cash flow−$55.4M9$11.5M10$4.77M11$44.9M12$34.8M12
Capital expenditure$2.29M13$7.82M14$12.7M15$5.02M16$3.38M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$57.7M9$3.69M10−$7.95M11$39.9M12$31.4M12
Total debt$159M17$184.5M18$58.8M19$216.8M20$214.5M20
Cash & equivalents$26.2M21$37.9M22$40.6M23$44.5M23$64.3M23
Diluted shares20.8M24.8M28.4M30.7M33.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$31.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$63.48

10 shares is a claim on −$31.79 of net worth that earned you $11.28 and generated $9.29 of cash last year, against $63.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-100% avg · 5y
FY21 -32%FY22 -41%FY23 —FY24 -275%FY25 -53%

It earned about -100% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+63% shares · 5y

Share count is up 63% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 35% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.05 and $13.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$31.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.83
Base5.0%$12.05
Bull10.0%$15.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032849 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037977 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098668 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-004254 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032849 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037977 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098668 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032849 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037977 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098668 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032849 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037977 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098668 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032849 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037977 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098668 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-032849 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-037977 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-098668 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)