MeritValue

Ferrari N.V.

RACEdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ferrari N.V. earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between €72.84 and €345.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€4.27B1€5.1B2€5.97B3€6.68B3€7.15B3
Net income€830.8M4€932.6M5€1.25B6€1.52B6€1.6B6
Operating cash flow€1.28B7€1.4B8€1.72B9€1.93B9€2.35B9
Capital expenditure€352.3M10€347.7M11€381.8M12€482.3M12€485.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)€930.4M7€1.06B8€1.33B9€1.44B9€1.86B9
Total debt€2.63B13€2.81B14€2.48B15€3.35B15€2.88B15
Cash & equivalents€1.34B16€1.39B17€1.12B17€1.74B17€1.47B17
Diluted shares184.4M182.8M181.2M179.7M178.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€219.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€89.65
Free cash flow it threw off
€104.65
Debt you’d be carrying
€161.92

10 shares is a claim on €219.33 of net worth that earned you €89.65 and generated €104.65 of cash last year, against €161.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 24%FY23 29%FY24 30%FY25 31%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between €72.84 and €345.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
€345.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.8%
  • fcfBase€1.44B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
€216.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.8%
  • fcfBase€1.44B
Earnings Power Value
€72.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€1.25B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€66.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth €216.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%€107.9
Base15.8%€216.3
Bull20.0%€256.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001648416-24-000032 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001648416-25-000027 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001648416-26-000024 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001648416-24-000032 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001648416-25-000027 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001648416-26-000024 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001648416-24-000032 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001648416-25-000027 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001648416-26-000024 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001648416-24-000032 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001648416-25-000027 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001648416-26-000024 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001648416-24-000032 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001648416-25-000027 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001648416-26-000024 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001648416-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001648416-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalents)