MeritValue

RYDER SYSTEM INC

Rdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

RYDER SYSTEM INC earns about 10% on invested capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $123.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.66B1$12B2$11.8B3$12.6B3$12.7B3
Net income$519M4$867M5$406M6$489M6$499M6
Operating cash flow$2.18B7$2.31B8$2.35B9$2.27B9$2.59B9
Capital expenditure$1.94B10$2.63B11$3.23B12$2.68B12$2.14B12
Free cash flow (derived)$234M7−$321M8−$881M9−$418M9$459M9
Total debt$7.89B13$7.68B14$8.71B15$8.89B16$819M17
Cash & equivalents$234M18$267M19$204M20$154M21$198M21
Diluted shares53.5M50.9M46.5M44.2M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$730.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$119.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$109.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$195.92

10 shares is a claim on $730.09 of net worth that earned you $119.37 and generated $109.8 of cash last year, against $195.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 10%FY23 5%FY24 7%FY25 22%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 90% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$123.7
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$499M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$140.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000085961-24-000030 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085961-25-000032 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085961-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000085961-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085961-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085961-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000085961-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085961-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085961-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000085961-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085961-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085961-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000085961-22-000055 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085961-23-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085961-24-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000085961-25-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000085961-26-000007 (DebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000085961-23-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000085961-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000085961-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000085961-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)