MeritValue

QXO, Inc.

QXOdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QXO, Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12096% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$41.7M1$45M2$54.5M3$56.9M4$6.84B4
Net income−$134,4345−$282,2196−$1.07M7$28M8−$279.4M8
Operating cash flow$226,0349$2.04M10$584,00011$84.8M12$261.4M12
Capital expenditure$114,76113$38,74214$121,00015$102,00015$78.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$111,2739$2M10$463,00011$84.7M12$183.2M12
Total debt$2.13M17$3.59M18$4.1M19$020$6.11B20
Cash & equivalents$6.81M21$8.01M22$6.14M23$5.07B24$2.36B24
Diluted shares5.0M5.2M657,000204.0M613.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$158.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$99.75

10 shares is a claim on $158.35 of net worth that earned you −$4.56 and generated $2.99 of cash last year, against $99.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -6%FY23 -19%FY24 —FY25 -2%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12096% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12096% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 287207% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$84.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$84.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000161 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000237 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009626 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012601 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000237 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009626 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012601 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000237 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009626 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012601 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000161 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000237 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009626 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012601 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000161 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000237 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009626 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012601 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001185185-23-000161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001185185-24-000237 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009626 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012601 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)