MeritValue

QVC Group, Inc.

QVCAQdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QVC Group, Inc. earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 98% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $153.16 and $196.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14B1$12.1B2$10.9B3$10B3$9.23B3
Net income$340M4−$2.59B5−$145M6−$1.29B6−$2.44B6
Operating cash flow$1.23B7$194M8$919M9$525M9$274M9
Capital expenditure$244M10$268M11$230M12$199M12$156M12
Free cash flow (derived)$981M7−$74M8$689M9$326M9$118M9
Total debt$14B13$12.7B14$10.7B15$9.94B15$5.05B16
Cash & equivalents$587M17$1.28B18$1.12B19$905M20$1.97B20
Diluted shares415.0M383.0M7.7M7.9M8.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$3,850.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3,029.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$146.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$6,267.54

10 shares is a claim on −$3,850.45 of net worth that earned you −$3,029.44 and generated $146.57 of cash last year, against $6,267.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 -12%FY23 3%FY24 -13%FY25 —

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−98% shares · 5y

Share count is down 98% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 64% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $153.16 and $196.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$153.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$326M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$196.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$326M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $196.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$196.72
Base0.0%$196.72
Bull5.0%$336.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001837 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001355096-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001837 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001355096-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001837 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001355096-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002032 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001837 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001355096-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002572 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001837 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001355096-26-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002572 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001837 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001355096-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)