MeritValue

Quad/Graphics, Inc.

QUADdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Quad/Graphics, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.19 and $2.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.96B1$3.22B2$2.96B3$2.67B4$2.42B4
Net income$37.8M5$9.3M6−$55.4M7−$50.9M8$27M8
Operating cash flow$136.5M9$154.6M10$147.6M11$112.9M12$95.9M12
Capital expenditure$50M13$60.3M14$70.8M15$57.2M16$45.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$86.5M9$94.3M10$76.8M11$55.7M12$50.7M12
Total debt$1.6B17$1.14B18$1.03B19$754.2M20$739.8M20
Cash & equivalents$179.9M21$25.2M22$52.9M23$29.2M24$63.3M24
Diluted shares53.0M52.5M48.4M47.6M49.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$11.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$148.26

10 shares is a claim on −$11.92 of net worth that earned you $5.41 and generated $10.16 of cash last year, against $148.26 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 11%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 54% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.19 and $2.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$55.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$55.7M
Earnings Power Value
$1.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.39
Base0.0%$2.39
Bull5.0%$6.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001481792-23-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001481792-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001481792-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001481792-26-000042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001481792-22-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001481792-24-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001481792-25-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001481792-26-000042 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001481792-23-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001481792-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001481792-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001481792-26-000042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001481792-23-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001481792-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001481792-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001481792-26-000042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001481792-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001481792-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001481792-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001481792-26-000042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001481792-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001481792-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001481792-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001481792-26-000042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)