MeritValue

Quantum-Si Inc

QSIdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Quantum-Si Inc earns about -40% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 149% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$02$1.08M3$3.06M3$2.44M3
Net income−$95M4−$132.4M5−$96M6−$101M6−$101.3M6
Operating cash flow−$66.8M7−$90.6M8−$94M9−$87.8M9−$94.7M9
Capital expenditure$5.76M10$10.7M11$4.51M12$4.58M12$2.52M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$72.6M7,10−$101.3M8,11−$98.5M9,12−$92.4M9,12−$97.2M9,12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$35.8M13$84.3M14$133.9M15$49.2M16$21.6M16
Diluted shares79.6M139.3M141.3M143.2M197.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.92
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $11.14 of net worth that earned you −$5.12 and generated −$4.92 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-40% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 -38%FY23 -55%FY24 -48%FY25 -40%

It earned an average -40% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+149% shares · 5y

Share count is up 149% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-02-29 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010438 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001816431-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-03-03 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001816431-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-02-29 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010438 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001816431-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-03-03 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001816431-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-02-29 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010438 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001816431-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-03-03 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001816431-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-29 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010438 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001816431-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-03-03 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001816431-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-03-17 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-012126 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K filed 2024-02-29 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-010438 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001816431-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-03-03 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001816431-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)