MeritValue

QuantumScape Corp

QSdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

QuantumScape Corp earns about -34% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 41% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$46M1−$411.9M2−$445.1M3−$477.9M3−$435.1M3
Operating cash flow−$127.9M4−$218M5−$240M6−$274.6M6−$242.5M6
Capital expenditure$127.2M7$158.8M8$84.6M9$62.2M9$36.3M9
Free cash flow (derived)−$255.1M4−$376.9M5−$324.6M6−$336.8M6−$278.8M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$320.7M10$235.4M11$142.5M12$140.9M12$230.5M12
Diluted shares409.5M433.0M462.2M508.1M576.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.84
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $20.3 of net worth that earned you −$7.55 and generated −$4.84 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-34% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -29%FY24 -37%FY25 -36%

It earned an average -34% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+41% shares · 5y

Share count is up 41% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027308 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071556 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027308 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071556 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021100 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027308 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071556 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021100 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027308 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071556 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)