QUINSTREET, INC

QNSTdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QUINSTREET, INC earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.03 and $3.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$490.3M1$578.5M2$582.1M3$580.6M3$613.5M3
Net income$18.1M4$23.6M5−$5.25M6−$68.9M6−$31.3M6
Operating cash flow$47.6M7$50.6M8$28.7M9$11.8M9$12M9
Capital expenditure$1.96M10$1.97M11$2.84M12$3.06M12$5.35M12
Free cash flow (derived)$45.6M7$48.6M8$25.8M9$8.78M9$6.69M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$107.5M13$110.3M14$96.4M15$73.7M15$50.5M15
Diluted shares53.4M55.1M54.3M53.8M54.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$39.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.22
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $39.48 of net worth that earned you −$5.71 and generated $1.22 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY20 13%FY21 13%FY22 -2%FY23 -10%FY24 -14%

It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.03 and $3.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.78M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$8.78M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.2
Base0.0%$3.2
Bull5.0%$3.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-029880 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-043659 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099495 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-029880 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-043659 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099495 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-029880 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-043659 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099495 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-029880 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-043659 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099495 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-06-30 · accession 0001564590-22-029880 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000950170-23-043659 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000950170-24-099495 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)