MeritValue

Quince Therapeutics, Inc.

QNCXdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

Quince Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -92% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 69% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$89.9M1−$51.7M2−$31.4M3−$56.8M4−$84M4
Operating cash flow−$62.9M5−$44M6−$18.3M7−$31.9M8−$41.4M8
Capital expenditure$180,0009$133,00010$160,00011$257,00012$352,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$63.1M5−$44.2M6−$18.5M7−$32.2M8−$41.8M8
Total debt—$013$13.4M14$14.3M15$18M15
Cash & equivalents$69.7M16$44.6M17$20.8M18$6.21M19$5.81M19
Diluted shares29.7M33.5M37.2M43.3M50.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$7.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$16.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.6

10 shares is a claim on −$7.13 of net worth that earned you −$16.76 and generated −$8.34 of cash last year, against $3.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-92% avg · 5y
FY21 -145%FY22 -73%FY23 -32%FY24 -117%FY25 —

It earned an average -92% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+69% shares · 5y

Share count is up 69% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008148 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039440 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662774-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151364 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039440 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662774-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151364 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008148 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039440 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662774-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151364 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039440 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001662774-25-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151364 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-039440 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001662774-25-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151364 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-151364 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)