MeritValue

QIAGEN N.V.

QGENdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QIAGEN N.V. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.72 and $20.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.25B1$2.14B2$1.97B3$1.98B3$2.09B3
Net income$512.6M4$423.2M5$341.3M6$83.6M6$424.9M6
Operating cash flow$639M7$715.3M8$459.5M9$673.6M9$654.3M9
Capital expenditure$189.9M10$129.2M11$149.7M12$167.2M12$201M12
Free cash flow (derived)$449.1M7$586M8$309.7M9$506.4M9$453.3M9
Total debt$3.88B13$3.72B14$3.02B15$2.78B16$3.31B16
Cash & equivalents$880.5M17$730.7M18$668.1M19$663.6M20$839M20
Diluted shares232.0M230.1M230.6M224.7M218.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$172.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$19.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$20.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$151.17

10 shares is a claim on $172.61 of net worth that earned you $19.41 and generated $20.71 of cash last year, against $151.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 1%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.72 and $20.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$453.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$453.3M
Earnings Power Value
$20.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$423.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.45
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.3
Base0.3%$18.71
Bull5.3%$25.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015820-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015820-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015820-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015820-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015820-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015820-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015820-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015820-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015820-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015820-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015820-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015820-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015820-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015820-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015820-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001015820-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001015820-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001015820-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001015820-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001015820-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)