Qfin Holdings, Inc.
QFINdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Qfin Holdings, Inc. earns about 37% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.53 and $175.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.61B1 | $2.4B2 | $2.29B3 | $2.35B4 | $2.75B5 |
| Net income | $904.6M6 | $580.8M7 | $601.2M8 | $856M9 | $854.5M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $908.5M11 | $858.7M12 | $1B13 | $1.28B14 | $1.58B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.97M16 | $3.91M17 | $11.9M18 | $21M19 | $34.4M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $904.6M11 | $854.8M12 | $990.7M13 | $1.26B14 | $1.55B15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $959.8M21 | $1.04B22 | $588.4M23 | $610M24 | $671.6M25 |
| Diluted shares | 321.4M | 322.0M | 328.5M | 303.4M | 272.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $126.7 of net worth that earned you $31.4 and generated $56.97 of cash last year.
It earned about 37% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.53 and $175.66 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth13.8%
- fcfBase$1.26B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth13.8%
- fcfBase$1.26B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$854.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $68.56 |
| Base | 13.8% | $120.54 |
| Bull | 18.8% | $146.33 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 13.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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