MeritValue

QCR HOLDINGS INC

QCRHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QCR HOLDINGS INC earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $69.33 and $1,269.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$300.6M1$373.3M1$546.1M1$481.9M2$489.4M2
Net income$98.9M3$99.1M4$113.6M5$113.9M5$127.2M5
Operating cash flow$88.2M6$118.7M7$376.3M8$444.5M8$421.5M8
Capital expenditure$14M9$33.3M10$14.9M11$44.5M11$67.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$74.2M6$85.4M7$361.4M8$400M8$354.1M8
Total debt$3.8M12$129.6M13$1.5M14$1.8M15$2.65M15
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares15.9M16.9M16.9M17.0M17.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$655.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$74.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$208.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.56

10 shares is a claim on $655.32 of net worth that earned you $74.94 and generated $208.62 of cash last year, against $1.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 17%FY23 32%FY24 33%FY25 33%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 30% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $69.33 and $1,269.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,269.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$361.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$693.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$361.4M
Earnings Power Value
$69.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$113.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$105.09
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $693.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$304.04
Base20.0%$693.99
Bull20.0%$693.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002208 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021531 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002208 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001954 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021531 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002208 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001954 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021531 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002208 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001954 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021531 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002607 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002208 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001954 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021531 (ShortTermBorrowings)