MeritValue

QUALCOMM INC/DE

QCOMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QUALCOMM INC/DE earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $84.81 and $488.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$33.6B1$44.2B2$35.8B3$39B3$44.3B3
Net income$9.04B4$12.9B5$7.23B6$10.1B6$5.54B6
Operating cash flow$10.5B7$9.1B8$11.3B9$12.2B9$14B9
Capital expenditure$1.89B10$2.26B11$1.45B12$1.04B12$1.19B12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.65B7$6.83B8$9.85B9$11.2B9$12.8B9
Total debt$31B13$30.5B14$30.8B15$29.3B16$29.6B16
Cash & equivalents$7.12B17$2.77B18$8.45B19$7.85B20$5.52B20
Diluted shares1.15B1.14B1.13B1.13B1.10B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$191.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$116.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$268.07

10 shares is a claim on $191.91 of net worth that earned you $50.14 and generated $116.02 of cash last year, against $268.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 29%FY23 18%FY24 23%FY25 15%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $84.81 and $488.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$488.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.8%
  • fcfBase$11.2B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$280.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.8%
  • fcfBase$11.2B
Earnings Power Value
$84.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.04B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $280.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$122.5
Base17.8%$280.1
Bull20.0%$307.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-26 · accession 0000804328-23-000055 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-25 · accession 0000804328-24-000075 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-24 · accession 0000804328-25-000085 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-26 · accession 0000804328-23-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-25 · accession 0000804328-24-000075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-24 · accession 0000804328-25-000085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-26 · accession 0000804328-23-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-25 · accession 0000804328-24-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-24 · accession 0000804328-25-000085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-26 · accession 0000804328-23-000055 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-25 · accession 0000804328-24-000075 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-24 · accession 0000804328-25-000085 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-26 · accession 0000804328-22-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-25 · accession 0000804328-23-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-24 · accession 0000804328-24-000075 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0000804328-25-000085 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-26 · accession 0000804328-22-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-25 · accession 0000804328-23-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-24 · accession 0000804328-24-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-29 · accession 0000804328-25-000085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)