MeritValue

PAPA JOHNS INTERNATIONAL INC

PZZAdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PAPA JOHNS INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 25% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $25.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.07B1$2.1B2$2.14B3$2.06B3$2.05B3
Net income$120M4$67.8M5$82.1M6$83.5M6$30.5M6
Operating cash flow$184.7M7$117.8M8$193.1M9$106.6M9$126M9
Capital expenditure$68.6M10$78.4M11$76.6M12$72.5M12$64.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$116.1M7$39.4M8$116.4M9$34.1M9$61.3M9
Total debt$480.7M13$597.1M14$757.4M15$741.7M16$1.44B16
Cash & equivalents$70.6M17$47.4M18$40.6M19$38M20$34.6M20
Diluted shares35.3M35.7M33.2M32.8M32.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$135
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.27
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$436.39

10 shares is a claim on −$135 of net worth that earned you $9.27 and generated $18.61 of cash last year, against $436.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 35%FY23 32%FY24 31%FY25 3%

It earned an average 25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 199% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$61.3M
Earnings Power Value
$25.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$82.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007791 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-008427 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011965 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007791 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-008427 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011965 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007791 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-008427 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011965 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-24-007791 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-25-008427 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011965 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-004682 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-007791 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008427 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011965 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001628280-23-004682 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001628280-24-007791 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008427 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-011965 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)