MeritValue

PolyPid Ltd.

PYPDdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

PolyPid Ltd. earns about -910% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2520% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$42.6M1−$39.6M2−$23.9M3−$29M3−$34.2M3
Operating cash flow−$32.4M4−$34.3M5−$17.2M6−$22M6−$27.9M6
Capital expenditure$2.65M7$1.77M8$196,0009$76,0009$210,0009
Free cash flow (derived)−$35M4−$36.1M5−$17.4M6−$22M6−$28.1M6
Total debt—$4.02M10$10.4M11$7.42M12$988,00013
Cash & equivalents$9.82M14$8.55M15$5.31M16$15.6M16$6.4M16
Diluted shares624,051647,5561.4M5.9M16.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.6

10 shares is a claim on $6.71 of net worth that earned you −$20.9 and generated −$17.18 of cash last year, against $0.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-910% avg · 5y
FY21 -129%FY22 -2394%FY23 -631%FY24 —FY25 -486%

It earned an average -910% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2520% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2520% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 75% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$5.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020424 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017412 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020370 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020424 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017412 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020370 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020424 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017412 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020370 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020424 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017412 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020370 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020370 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-020424 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-017412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-020370 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)