QUANTA SERVICES, INC.

PWRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

QUANTA SERVICES, INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $51.01 and $580.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13B1$17.1B2$20.9B3$23.7B3$28.5B3
Net income$486M4$491.2M5$744.7M6$904.8M6$1.03B6
Operating cash flow$582.4M7$1.13B8$1.58B9$2.08B9$2.23B9
Capital expenditure$385.9M10$427.6M11$434.8M12$604.1M12$609.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$196.5M7$702.7M8$1.14B9$1.48B9$1.62B9
Total debt$44.9M13$37.5M13$535.2M14$62.7M15$763.9M15
Cash & equivalents$229.1M16$428.5M17$1.29B17$742M17$439.5M17
Diluted shares145.4M148.0M148.8M150.1M151.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$590.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$107.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$50.49

10 shares is a claim on $590.8 of net worth that earned you $67.97 and generated $107.13 of cash last year, against $50.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 12%FY23 16%FY24 14%FY25 11%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1603% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $51.01 and $580.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$580.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.48B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$316.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.48B
Earnings Power Value
$51.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$744.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$95.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $316.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$137.35
Base20.0%$316.18
Bull20.0%$316.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050915-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050915-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050915-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050915-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050915-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050915-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050915-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050915-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050915-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050915-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050915-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050915-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050915-23-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001050915-25-000005 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001050915-26-000006 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001050915-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001050915-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)