PALVELLA THERAPEUTICS, INC.

PVLAdata completeness 63%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PALVELLA THERAPEUTICS, INC. earns about -89% on equity, and has bought back 83% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$27.9M¹	$25.5M²	$38.7M²	—	—
Net income	−$45.7M³	−$33.3M⁴	$18.7M⁵	−$17.4M⁶	−$41.7M⁶
Operating cash flow	−$7.66M⁷	−$59.9M⁸	−$13.7M⁹	−$10.8M¹⁰	−$25M¹⁰
Capital expenditure	$949,000¹¹	$1.04M¹²	$171,000¹²	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	−$8.61M⁷	−$61M⁸	−$13.9M⁹	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$117.8M¹³	$38.6M¹⁴	$7.35M¹⁵	$83.6M¹⁶	$58M¹⁶
Diluted shares	64.5M	74.2M	1.8M	2.2M	11.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$24.87

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$37.08

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $24.87 of net worth that earned you −$37.08 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-89% avg · 5y

FY21 -90%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -28%FY25 -149%

It earned an average -89% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−83% shares · 5y

Share count is down 83% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008834 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010123 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008834 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010123 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047212 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133372 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008834 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047212 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133372 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008834 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008834 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-047212 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-133372 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)