MeritValue

ProPetro Holding Corp.

PUMPdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ProPetro Holding Corp. earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.08 and $25.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$874.5M1$1.28B2$1.63B3$1.44B3$1.27B3
Net income−$54.2M4$2.03M5$85.6M6−$137.9M6$824,0006
Operating cash flow$154.7M7$300.4M8$374.7M9$252.3M9$231.6M9
Capital expenditure$143.5M10$319.7M11$370.9M12$140.3M12$186.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$11.2M7−$19.3M8$3.87M9$112M9$45.3M9
Total debt$013$30M14$45M15$45M16$121.6M16
Cash & equivalents$111.9M17$78.9M18$33.4M18$50.4M19$91.3M19
Diluted shares102.7M106.9M113.4M105.5M105.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.53

10 shares is a claim on $78.73 of net worth that earned you $0.08 and generated $4.3 of cash last year, against $11.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 0%FY23 9%FY24 -16%FY25 0%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.08 and $25.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$45.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$45.3M
Earnings Power Value
$0.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$824,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.85
Base20.0%$13.72
Bull20.0%$13.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680247-24-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680247-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680247-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680247-24-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680247-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680247-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680247-24-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680247-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680247-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680247-24-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680247-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680247-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680247-23-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680247-24-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001680247-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680247-26-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001680247-24-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001680247-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001680247-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)