MeritValue

PubMatic, Inc.

PUBMdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

PubMatic, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.76 and $40.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$226.9M1$256.4M2$267M3$291.3M3$282.9M3
Net income$56.6M4$28.7M5$8.88M6$12.5M6−$14.5M6
Operating cash flow$88.7M7$87.2M8$81.1M9$73.4M9$81.1M9
Capital expenditure$30.4M10$35.9M11$10.6M12$17.6M12$14.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$58.2M7$51.3M8$70.5M9$55.8M9$66.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$82.5M13$92.4M14$78.5M15$100.5M16$145.5M16
Diluted shares56.6M56.9M56.0M54.3M47.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$14.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $55.86 of net worth that earned you −$3.08 and generated $14.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 33%FY22 14%FY23 8%FY24 7%FY25 -11%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.76 and $40.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$40.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$66.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$66.7M
Earnings Power Value
$2.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.37
Base9.1%$33.05
Bull14.1%$39.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001422930-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001422930-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001422930-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001422930-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001422930-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001422930-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001422930-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001422930-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001422930-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001422930-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001422930-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001422930-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001422930-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001422930-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001422930-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001422930-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)