Pattern Group Inc.
PTRNdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Pattern Group Inc. earns about 54% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.72 and $10.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B1 | $1.8B1 | $2.5B1 |
| Net income | $41.3M2 | $67.9M2 | $16.2M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $41.5M3 | $70.3M3 | $99.4M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $14.5M4 | $20.5M4 | $20.5M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $27M3 | $49.9M3 | $78.9M3 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $127.2M5 | $175.6M6 | $289M6 |
| Diluted shares | 90.8M | 90.8M | 115.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $50.52 of net worth that earned you $1.41 and generated $6.86 of cash last year.
It earned about 54% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 27% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.72 and $10.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$49.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$49.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$41.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $8.71 |
| Base | 5.0% | $10.21 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $12.01 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811935-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811935-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811935-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811935-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001811935-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001811935-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)