MeritValue

PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC.

PTONdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. earns about -477% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.61 and $13.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$3.58B1$2.8B2$2.7B3$2.49B3$2.45B3
Net income−$2.83B4−$1.26B5−$551.9M6−$118.9M6$63.2M6
Operating cash flow−$2.02B7−$387.6M8−$66.1M9$333M9$387.6M9
Capital expenditure$337.3M10$82.4M11$19.7M12$9.3M12$9.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.36B7−$470M8−$85.8M9$323.7M9$377.7M9
Total debt$7.5M13$7.5M14$1.56B15$1.75B16$1.34B16
Cash & equivalents$1.25B17$813.9M18$697.6M19$1.04B20$1.21B20
Diluted shares322.4M346.7M365.5M390.0M436.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$3.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.72

10 shares is a claim on −$3.2 of net worth that earned you $1.45 and generated $8.66 of cash last year, against $30.72 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-477% avg · 5y
FY22 -477%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —FY26 —

It earned about -477% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 17767% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.61 and $13.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$323.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$323.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.1
Base5.0%$12.61
Bull10.0%$15.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-26-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-26-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-26-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-26-000038 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001639825-26-000038 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001639825-26-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)