MeritValue

PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC.

PTONdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC. earns about -60% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.02B1$3.58B2$2.8B3$2.7B3$2.49B3
Net income−$189M4−$2.83B5−$1.26B6−$551.9M6−$118.9M6
Operating cash flow−$239.7M7−$2.02B8−$387.6M9−$66.1M9$333M9
Capital expenditure$241M10$337.3M11$82.4M12$19.7M12$9.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$480.7M7−$2.36B8−$470M9−$85.8M9$323.7M9
Total debt$013$7.5M14$7.5M15$1.56B16$1.75B16
Cash & equivalents$1.13B17$1.25B18$813.9M19$697.6M20$1.04B20
Diluted shares293.9M322.4M346.7M365.5M390.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$10.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$44.8

10 shares is a claim on −$10.61 of net worth that earned you −$3.05 and generated $8.3 of cash last year, against $44.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-60% avg · 5y
FY21 -23%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -126%FY25 -31%

It earned an average -60% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+33% shares · 5y

Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001639825-21-000256 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001639825-22-000117 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001639825-22-000117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001639825-23-000132 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001639825-24-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001639825-25-000138 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)