MeritValue

Portillo's Inc.

PTLOdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Portillo's Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 99% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$535M1$587.1M2$679.9M3$710.6M3$732.1M3
Net income−$15.2M4$10.9M5$18.4M6$29.5M6$19.3M6
Operating cash flow$42.9M7$56.9M8$70.8M9$98M9$71.9M9
Capital expenditure$36.2M10$47.1M11$87.9M12$88.2M12$90.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.69M7$9.83M8−$17.1M9$9.85M9−$18.5M9
Total debt$638.3M13$637.2M14$612.8M15$623.3M16$668.5M16
Cash & equivalents$39.3M17$44.4M18$10.4M18$22.9M18$20M18
Diluted shares35.8M42.7M57.3M64.0M71.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$65.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.72
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$94.03

10 shares is a claim on $65.81 of net worth that earned you $2.72 and generated −$2.61 of cash last year, against $94.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 6%FY25 4%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+99% shares · 5y

Share count is up 99% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$18.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001871509-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001871509-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001871509-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001871509-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001871509-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001871509-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001871509-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001871509-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001871509-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001871509-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001871509-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001871509-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001871509-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001871509-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001871509-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001871509-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0001871509-25-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0001871509-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)