MeritValue

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc

PTGXdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc earns about -37% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.67 and $19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.4M1$26.6M2$60M3$434.4M3$46M3
Net income−$125.6M4−$127.4M5−$79M6$275.2M6−$130.1M6
Operating cash flow−$107.9M7−$108.1M8−$70.2M9$184.2M9$57.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.1M10$795,00011$609,00012$1.36M12$1.59M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$109M7−$108.9M8−$70.8M9$182.8M9$56.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$123.7M13$125.7M14$186.7M15$97.2M15$128.4M15
Diluted shares46.3M49.0M56.8M65.1M63.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$96.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $96.69 of net worth that earned you −$20.47 and generated $8.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-37% avg · 5y
FY21 -56%FY22 -112%FY23 -42%FY24 48%FY25 -21%

It earned about -37% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.67 and $19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$56.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$56.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.62
Base5.0%$17.67
Bull10.0%$21.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001850 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001317 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019696 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001850 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001317 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019696 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001850 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001317 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019696 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001850 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001317 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019696 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001850 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001317 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019696 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)