MeritValue

PATTERSON UTI ENERGY INC

PTENdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PATTERSON UTI ENERGY INC earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 196528% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.88 and $55.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.36B1$2.57B2$4.07B3$5.31B3$4.79B3
Net income−$654.5M4$154.7M5$246.3M6−$968M6−$93.6M6
Operating cash flow$95.5M7$566.2M8$1.01B9$1.18B9$961.2M9
Capital expenditure$166.3M10$436.8M11$615.7M12$678.4M12$589M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$70.8M7$129.4M8$390.2M9$497.2M9$372.2M9
Total debt$1.71B13$1.67B14$2.5B15$2.46B16$2.45B16
Cash & equivalents$117.5M17$137.6M18$190.1M19$239.2M20$418.5M20
Diluted shares195,021219.5M280.1M397.2M383.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$63.85

10 shares is a claim on $83.93 of net worth that earned you −$2.44 and generated $9.71 of cash last year, against $63.85 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 -17%FY22 6%FY23 4%FY24 -13%FY25 -2%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+196528% shares · 5y

Share count is up 196528% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 43% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.88 and $55.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$390.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$390.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.25
Base20.0%$27.88
Bull20.0%$27.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020661 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889900-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000889900-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020661 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889900-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000889900-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020661 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889900-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000889900-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020661 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000889900-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000889900-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033231 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020661 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000889900-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000889900-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-033231 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020661 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000889900-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000889900-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)