MeritValue

PTC INC.

PTCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PTC INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $32.29 and $354.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.81B1$1.93B2$2.1B3$2.3B3$2.74B3
Net income$476.9M4$313.1M5$245.5M6$376.3M6$734M6
Operating cash flow$368.8M7$435.3M8$610.9M9$750M9$867.7M9
Capital expenditure$24.7M10$19.5M11$23.8M12$14.4M12$11M12
Free cash flow (derived)$344.1M7$415.8M8$587M9$735.6M9$856.7M9
Total debt$1.44B13$1.35B14$1.7B15$1.75B16$1.2B16
Cash & equivalents$326.5M17$272.2M18$288.1M19$265.8M20$184.4M20
Diluted shares118.4M118.2M119.3M120.7M120.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$316.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$70.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$99.14

10 shares is a claim on $316.8 of net worth that earned you $60.77 and generated $70.93 of cash last year, against $99.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 11%FY23 8%FY24 10%FY25 16%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $32.29 and $354.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$354.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$735.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$190.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$735.6M
Earnings Power Value
$32.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$376.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $190.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$78.63
Base20.0%$190.19
Bull20.0%$190.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-23-011049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127231 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-291326 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-23-011049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127231 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-291326 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-23-011049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127231 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-291326 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950123-23-011049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127231 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-291326 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025211 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950123-23-011049 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127231 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-291326 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-025211 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950123-23-011049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-127231 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-291326 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)