MeritValue

Phillips 66

PSXdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Phillips 66 earns about 18% on equity, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $111.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$111.5B1$170B2$147.4B3$143.2B3$132.4B3
Net income$1.32B4$11B5$7.02B6$2.12B6$4.4B6
Operating cash flow$6.02B7$10.8B8$7.03B9$4.19B9$4.96B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.49B10$529M11$1.48B12$1.83B13$1.04B13
Cash & equivalents$3.15B14$6.13B15$3.32B16$1.74B17$1.12B17
Diluted shares440.4M473.7M453.2M421.9M408.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$712.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$107.9
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$25.44

10 shares is a claim on $712.97 of net worth that earned you $107.9 last year, against $25.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
18% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 37%FY23 23%FY24 8%FY25 15%

It earned an average 18% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 30% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$111.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$131.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534701-24-000078 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534701-25-000074 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534701-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534701-24-000078 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534701-25-000074 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534701-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534701-24-000078 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534701-25-000074 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534701-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534701-23-000053 (DebtCurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534701-24-000078 (DebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534701-25-000074 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534701-26-000006 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534701-23-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534701-24-000078 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534701-25-000074 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534701-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)