MeritValue

Postal Realty Trust, Inc.

PSTLdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Postal Realty Trust, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 78% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.64 and $60.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$39.9M1$53.3M2$63.7M3$76.4M4$95.8M4
Net income$2.06M5$3.85M6$3.71M7$6.6M8$14.1M8
Operating cash flow$17.1M9$24.6M10$28.4M11$33.5M12$44.5M12
Capital expenditure$1.9M13$3.69M14$2.87M15$2.78M16$6.94M16
Free cash flow (derived)$15.2M9$20.9M10$25.6M11$30.7M12$37.6M12
Total debt$95.3M17$196.7M18$240.6M19$296.7M20$361.1M20
Cash & equivalents$5.86M21$1.5M22$2.24M23$1.8M24$1.45M24
Diluted shares13.7M18.5M20.1M22.6M24.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$117.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$148.32

10 shares is a claim on $117.13 of net worth that earned you $5.81 and generated $15.43 of cash last year, against $148.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 -1%FY25 0%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+78% shares · 5y

Share count is up 78% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 279% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.64 and $60.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$60.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$30.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$30.7M
Earnings Power Value
$1.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.85M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.26
Base20.0%$26.37
Bull20.0%$26.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006624 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008057 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008338 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011212 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006624 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008338 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011212 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006624 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008338 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011212 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006624 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008057 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008338 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011212 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006624 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008057 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008338 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011212 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-006624 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008338 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011212 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)