Personalis, Inc.

PSNLdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

Personalis, Inc. earns about -63% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 103% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$85.5M¹	$65M¹	$73.5M²	$84.6M³	$69.6M³
Net income	−$65.2M⁴	−$113.3M⁴	−$108.3M⁵	−$81.3M⁶	−$81.3M⁶
Operating cash flow	−$70.8M⁷	−$70.2M⁷	−$56.3M⁸	−$45.2M⁹	−$74.9M⁹
Capital expenditure	$11.1M¹⁰	$49.9M¹⁰	$10.9M¹¹	$1.6M¹²	$4.5M¹²
Free cash flow (derived)	−$81.9M⁷	−$120.1M⁷	−$67.2M⁸	−$46.8M⁹	−$79.5M⁹
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$105.6M¹³	$89.1M¹³	$57M¹⁴	$91.4M¹⁵	$124.2M¹⁵
Diluted shares	43.9M	45.7M	48.2M	59.3M	89.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$29.27

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$9.11

Free cash flow it threw off

−$8.9

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $29.27 of net worth that earned you −$9.11 and generated −$8.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-63% avg · 5y

FY21 -25%FY22 -69%FY23 -118%FY24 -58%FY25 -47%

It earned an average -63% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+103% shares · 5y

Share count is up 103% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022097 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029221 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076615 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022097 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029221 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076615 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022097 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029221 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076615 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022097 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029221 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076615 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022097 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029221 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076615 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)