MeritValue

PRICESMART INC

PSMTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

PRICESMART INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.64 and $199.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.62B1$4.07B2$4.41B3$4.91B3$5.27B3
Net income$98M4$104.5M5$109.2M6$138.9M6$147.9M6
Operating cash flow$127.2M7$121.8M8$257.3M9$207.6M9$261.3M9
Capital expenditure$113.2M10$120.7M11$142.5M12$168.5M12$158.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$14M7$1.17M8$114.8M9$39M9$103.2M9
Total debt$259M13$285.2M14$288M15$268.7M15$385.5M15
Cash & equivalents$202.1M16$237.7M17$240M18$125.4M18$241M18
Diluted shares30.4M30.6M30.8M30.0M30.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$414.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$128.22

10 shares is a claim on $414.92 of net worth that earned you $49.19 and generated $34.32 of cash last year, against $128.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 11%FY23 10%FY24 0%FY25 11%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.64 and $199.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$199.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$103.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$103.2M
Earnings Power Value
$37.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$109.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$44.23
Base20.0%$107.09
Bull20.0%$107.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001041803-23-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001041803-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001041803-25-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001041803-23-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001041803-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001041803-25-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001041803-23-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001041803-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001041803-25-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001041803-23-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001041803-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001041803-25-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001041803-23-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001041803-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001041803-25-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001041803-23-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001041803-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001041803-25-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)