MeritValue

Sprott Physical Silver Trust

PSLVdata completeness 63%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Sprott Physical Silver Trust earns about 12% on equity, but has diluted owners by 42% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$549.5M1$103.2M2−$53.5M3$821.2M4$8.48B4
Operating cash flow−$21.5M5−$10.8M6−$31.4M7−$27.7M8$145.2M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.19M9$16M10$5.87M11$9.73M11$198.9M11
Diluted shares432.6M483.1M487.6M520.0M614.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$245.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$137.99
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $245.91 of net worth that earned you $137.99 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 -15%FY22 3%FY23 -1%FY24 16%FY25 56%

It earned an average 12% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+42% shares · 5y

Share count is up 42% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$103.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003845 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-003928 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002921 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005829 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003845 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-003928 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002921 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005829 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-003928 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002921 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005829 (CashAndCashEquivalents)