MeritValue

POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL, INC.

PSIXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

POWER SOLUTIONS INTERNATIONAL, INC. earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.82 and $50.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$456.3M1$481.3M2$459M3$476M4$722.4M4
Net income−$48.5M5$11.3M6$26.3M7$69.3M8$114M8
Operating cash flow−$61.5M9−$8.85M10$70.5M11$62.4M12$24.1M12
Capital expenditure$1.97M13$1.35M14$5.04M15$4.56M16$9.97M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$63.4M9−$10.2M10$65.5M11$57.8M12$14.1M12
Total debt$206.1M17$216M18$145.2M19$120.1M20$38,00020
Cash & equivalents$6.26M21$24.3M22$22.8M23$55.3M24$41.3M24
Diluted shares22.9M22.9M23.0M23.0M23.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$77.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.02

10 shares is a claim on $77.43 of net worth that earned you $49.42 and generated $6.13 of cash last year, against $0.02 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 -21%FY22 15%FY23 36%FY24 63%FY25 81%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.82 and $50.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$50.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$57.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$57.8M
Earnings Power Value
$11.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$26.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.61
Base5.0%$46.28
Bull10.0%$56.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137091-23-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137091-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137091-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013207 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137091-23-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137091-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137091-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013207 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137091-23-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137091-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137091-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137091-23-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137091-24-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137091-25-000005 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013207 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137091-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137091-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137091-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013207 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001137091-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001137091-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001137091-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)